Tankan: big manufacturers' mood rises to 24 as firms assume a weaker yen
Serguey Asael Shinder1 min readThe Bank of Japan's Tankan survey for September, published on 1 October, shows sentiment among large manufacturers improving while large non-manufacturers lost some ground. The survey covered 9,104 companies, with responses collected between 26 August and 30 September and a response rate of 99.4%.
The headline index for large manufacturers, the share of firms reporting favourable business conditions minus the share reporting unfavourable ones, rose to 24 from 22 in June. Large non-manufacturers fell to 35 from 37. Both groups expect conditions to worsen in the next three months: large manufacturers forecast 21 and large non-manufacturers 30.
Within manufacturing, large petroleum and coal producers jumped to 36 from 9, chemicals rose to 26 from 20 and production machinery to 43 from 36, while motor vehicles slipped to 11 from 12. Among large non-manufacturers, retailing fell to 29 from 33, accommodation and food services to 38 from 46, and transport and postal services to 21 from 25.
Across all firms of every size, the index rose to 21 from 18. Small manufacturers improved to 14 from 9, while small non-manufacturers were unchanged at 15.
The survey also records the exchange rate companies assume in their plans. Across all enterprises, the average assumption for fiscal 2026 rose to 154.23 yen to the dollar from 152.57 in the June survey. Large manufacturers that export now assume 153.79, up from 151.49.
Why it matters
Exporters and energy producers are doing well while consumer-facing services weaken, a split consistent with a weaker yen and higher energy prices. For the Bank of Japan, the Tankan is one of the main inputs into its rate decisions, and firms' rising yen assumption suggests they do not expect the currency to recover soon.