BoJ: import prices of durable goods up over 10%, half of it from the weak yen
Victoria Shinder2 min readThe Bank of Japan released the full text of its October 2026 Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices at 14:00 Japan time on 2 November, adding six analytical boxes to the summary published with the policy decision. Box 4 examines how upward pressure on prices in business-to-business transactions is spreading to consumer prices.
The producer price index has risen substantially since early spring, when tension over the Middle East heightened, and since summer that pressure has been spreading to consumer prices, the box says. It identifies two channels. In the indirect one, estimates from input-output tables show growth in intermediate input costs for consumer goods and services accelerating sharply since around spring, led by chemicals, plastics and energy, with cost rises in electrical machinery, information and communications parts and non-ferrous metals such as copper becoming noticeable on the back of AI-related demand. For petroleum-derived chemicals and plastics, pass-through has been faster than after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and it is now reaching household supplies such as detergents.
In the direct channel, import prices of durable consumer goods have risen by more than 10% year on year since April 2026. About half of that increase is attributed to the yen's depreciation, and most of the rest to higher foreign-currency prices of products containing semiconductors. The box notes price hikes already emerging in items such as tablets and air conditioners and, drawing on a lag of about four months from import to consumer prices, expects durable goods inflation to accelerate further toward the end of 2026.
What it means
The box puts a number on how much of Japan's goods inflation is the currency: roughly half of the import-price rise in durables. That is the link between the yen and the Bank's own inflation forecast, and it cuts both ways. A firmer yen would take pressure off the items that are still to come through over the next months, while further weakness would add to the acceleration the Bank already expects at the end of the year.