Rate traders polled by the BoE in October expected one more rise, to 4.25% in February
Serguey Asael Shinder1 min readThe Bank of England published the November results of its Market Participants Survey on 6 November. The poll of 80 participants in UK rates and money markets ran from 21 to 23 October, before the Monetary Policy Committee's 5 November meeting, and is designed by Bank staff without involvement from MPC members.
The median respondent expected Bank Rate at 4.00% after the November and December meetings and at 4.25% from the February 2027 meeting through September 2027, with the 75th percentile at 4.50% from April. For the 5 November decision respondents attached an average 86% probability to 4.00% and 13.1% to 3.75%. For December the average probabilities were 71.9% for 4.00% and 19.5% for 4.25%. Further out, the median path falls to 4.00% at the end of 2027, 3.50% two years ahead and 3.25% after five years.
Asked what drives their near-term view, respondents gave energy and related commodity prices an average weight of 30.3%, ahead of realised inflation excluding energy at 18.5%, domestic activity and the labour market at 17.2%, forward-looking inflation indicators at 16.4% and MPC communications at 15.3%.
Their median CPI forecasts were 3.8% at the end of 2026 and 4.0% in the first quarter of 2027, easing to 3.0% one year ahead and 2.3% two years ahead. The median neutral rate was 3.50%, with 42 respondents seeing risks to it skewed upwards against four skewed downwards.
What it means
The survey shows a market that expected one more rise after the autumn and treated energy as the main swing factor. With CPI expected near 4% into early 2027, the MPC's December and February decisions hinge on whether energy prices pass into broader inflation.