Ryanair's O'Leary: enough jet fuel into 2027, but at a 50% premium over Brent
Serguey Asael Shinder2 min readRyanair chief executive Michael O'Leary said on 8 October that he does not expect jet fuel shortages in Europe this winter or into summer 2027, "unless there's some unforeseen event", Euronews reported from a press conference organised by Airlines for Europe (A4E) in Brussels. The catch is price, not supply.
The premium. "Historically, jet fuel was about somewhere between 10 per cent and 15 per cent more expensive than Brent crude. It's currently running at about 50 per cent more expensive," O'Leary said. He expects that premium to persist for another 12 to 18 months, citing attacks on Russian and Middle Eastern refineries and limits on tanker availability and refining capacity.
The numbers behind it. According to IATA's fuel price monitor, Europe and the CIS region had the highest average jet fuel price of any region — $195.95 a barrel in the week to 2 October, more than double a year earlier, though down 1% that week. Globally, the jet premium over crude remained roughly three times its year-earlier level. Kpler's analyst George Shaw told Euronews in September that jet fuel is closely tied to diesel, which is even tighter and recently at record prices.
Why supply should hold. Lower seasonal demand from November and imports from Asia — Kpler counted nearly 900,000 tonnes of jet fuel scheduled to arrive — are expected to keep Europe supplied. The European Commission said on 8 September that higher EU refinery output and alternative imports were meeting demand, while warning that further Middle East disruption could tighten supply. The G7 agreed last week to speed up the release of 100 million barrels from strategic reserves, which the IEA clarified were part of the emergency release agreed in March, prioritising diesel rather than jet fuel.
What it means beyond airlines. Ryanair has already cut its winter schedule and its full-year passenger target to 214 million from 216 million. For inflation-watchers the more general point is the one central banks keep making: the energy shock has moved from crude into refined products. The ECB's September account put European diesel crack spreads above $70 a barrel, more than three times pre-war. When refining margins, not crude, drive fuel prices, a fall in oil does less for transport costs — and for headline inflation — than it used to.
Source: Euronews Business, "Ryanair CEO sees no European jet fuel shortages into summer 2027", 8 October 2026 — https://www.euronews.com/2026/10/08/ryanair-ceo-sees-no-european-jet-fuel-shortages-into-summer-2027