Italian inflation jumps to 4.2% in September, a three-year high, on energy
Serguey Asael Shinder1 min readItaly's inflation rate rose to 4.2% in September from 3.3% in August, according to Istat's preliminary estimate, reported by Euronews. The national consumer price index rose 0.7% on the month. It is the highest rate since September 2023, when annual inflation stood at 5.3%.
The jump is driven almost entirely by energy, where prices are being pushed up by the disruption from the conflict with Iran. Energy goods rose 22.3% on a year earlier, up from 17.1% in August. Regulated energy accelerated from 18.6% to 25.9%, with a 5.9% rise in September alone, and unregulated energy from 17.0% to 22.2%. Unprocessed food, such as fresh fruit and vegetables, also quickened, from 3.8% to 5.5%. Recreational and cultural services rose 2.9% and transport-related services 1.6%. Istat also recorded a sharp drop in confidence among households and businesses.
Italy is not alone: Spain's September inflation rate reached 4.9% on higher fuel prices, according to the same report.
Why it matters
For the ECB, a supply shock this concentrated in energy is the hardest kind to judge: it raises headline inflation sharply while squeezing real incomes and confidence. With Italy and Spain both well above 4%, the question for the euro area is how much of the energy jump passes into wages and core prices before it fades.