ECB wage tracker points to 2.8% wage growth in the first half of 2027, up from 2.3% in 2026
Serguey Asael Shinder1 min readThe European Central Bank published an update of its wage tracker on 4 November, covering collective agreements signed up to the middle of October 2026 and extending the forward-looking horizon to the end of September 2027.
The headline tracker, which smooths one-off payments over 12 months, indicates negotiated wage growth of 2.3% in 2026, based on agreements covering 46.2% of employees in the participating countries. It stands at 2.7% for the second half of 2026 on 45.6% coverage and 2.8% for the first half of 2027 on 31.8%, then falls to 2.4% for the third quarter of 2027, where coverage is a still relatively low 23.3%. Excluding one-off payments, the tracker rises from 2.6% in 2026 to 2.8% for the first three quarters of 2027.
The ECB explains the low reading for the first half of 2026 as a mechanical effect: one-off payments made in the second half of 2024 were not repeated the following year, which pulls the year-on-year comparison down. Those effects dissipate fully in the second half of 2026. Compared with the September release, the headline tracker was revised upwards.
Because the coverage for late 2027 rests on fewer than a quarter of employees, the third-quarter dip says more about which contracts have been signed so far than about where wages are heading.
What it means
Underlying wage growth is drifting up towards 3% rather than down. For rate-setters, a tracker revised upwards is no argument for easing.