ECB consumer survey: 12-month inflation expectations rose to 3.1% in September

Victoria Shinder29 October 2026, 09:281 min read

Euro area consumers expected slightly higher inflation in September, according to the ECB's Consumer Expectations Survey published on 23 October. The median expectation for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.1% from 3.0% in August, and the median perception of inflation over the past 12 months rose to 3.6% from 3.5%. Expectations three and five years ahead were unchanged at 2.9% and 2.5%. Uncertainty about the 12-month outlook increased slightly and remains above its level before the conflict in the Middle East began.

The growth picture weakened. Consumers expected the economy to shrink by 1.5% over the next 12 months, against minus 1.2% in August, and expected unemployment in a year's time of 11.3%, up from 11.0%. They saw current unemployment at 10.6%, so the expected rise is small. Expected nominal income growth edged up to 1.1% and expected spending growth to 3.7%.

On housing, consumers expected home prices to rise 3.5% over the next year, up from 3.4%, and mortgage rates in a year's time to stay at 4.9%. More households reported tighter access to credit over the past year and expected tighter conditions ahead. The survey covers around 19,000 adults in 11 euro area countries; fieldwork ran from 27 August to 28 September. Lower-income respondents again reported higher inflation perceptions and expectations than higher-income ones.

What it means

The pattern the ECB watches most is the anchor: longer-term expectations did not move, which suggests households read the current rise as temporary. The short-term numbers drift the other way, and households now expect both more inflation and a weaker economy. The October results are due on 27 November.