Romania's central bank holds at 6.50% as inflation falls to 6.17% but is seen rising again
Serguey Asael Shinder2 min readThe board of the National Bank of Romania (BNR) decided on 8 October to keep the monetary policy rate at 6.50%. The Lombard facility stays at 7.50% and the deposit facility at 5.50%, and minimum reserve requirements on leu and foreign-currency liabilities are unchanged.
Inflation fell sharply — as anticipated. Annual CPI inflation dropped from 10.42% in June to 8.16% in July and 6.17% in August. The BNR attributes the fall to base effects: the direct impact of the removal of the electricity price cap and of VAT and excise increases a year earlier has dropped out of the annual comparison. Adjusted CORE2 inflation fell from 8.3% to 6.2% over the same period, and the EU-harmonised HICP from 9.2% to 6.3%. The 12-month average CPI rate was 9.5% in August.
But the bank expects the next move in inflation to be up. According to the statement, annual inflation will follow an upward path until the end of this year, mainly because of higher fuel and energy prices and other commodity prices, including food, in the context of the prolonged Middle East conflict and this year's severe drought, and because of the development of the leu exchange rate. Further out, the BNR expects increasingly clear disinflationary pressure from weak aggregate demand, linked to the fiscal correction begun in 2025 and continued this year.
An economy in a demand gap. Output stagnated in the second quarter after shrinking 0.1% in the first; year on year the contraction eased to −0.4% from −1.2%. Household consumption kept falling in annual terms, and the trade and current-account deficits widened again in the second quarter. The BNR's latest data point to a quarter-on-quarter recovery in the third quarter, helped by agriculture, alongside a worse annual comparison. The ILO unemployment rate fell back to 6.4% in July–August from an average of 6.8% in the second quarter.
Markets, as the bank describes them. Interbank rates rose in successive steps from late September, more markedly in the first days of October. Government bond yields rose considerably in September and largely corrected in early October. The leu/euro exchange rate rose more steeply in early September and recorded a significant abrupt increase at the end of the month and in early October, then stayed at the new level. Private-sector credit growth eased to 8.2% in August from 8.4% in June.
The caveat the board chose to state. The statement says large uncertainties remain, including in the current domestic political situation, about measures to continue fiscal consolidation beyond this year under the medium-term plan agreed with the European Commission and the excessive deficit procedure. The board will next meet on monetary policy at the date in its published calendar; this note does not forecast its decision.
Source: National Bank of Romania, Monetary policy decisions of the BNR Board, 8 October 2026 — https://www.bnr.ro/25929-2026-10-08-hotarari-ale-ca-al-bnr-pe-probleme-de-politica-monetara