US Treasury tells its borrowing panel Q3 GDP grew 3.4%, led by a 20.9% jump in equipment
Victoria Shinder1 min readThe US Treasury published its economy statement for the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee on 2 November, ahead of its quarterly refunding. It describes the economy as strong and supported by business investment and consumer spending.
According to the statement, real GDP grew at an annual rate of 3.4% in the third quarter in the advance estimate, up from 2.2% in the second. Private domestic final purchases, the sum of consumption, business fixed investment and residential investment, rose 4.9%, which the Treasury calls the strongest pace in over five years. Business fixed investment grew 12.7% and contributed 1.8 percentage points; equipment investment rose 20.9%, the third straight quarter of double-digit growth, and spending on data centres "accelerated to a triple-digit pace". Consumer spending grew 3.8% and added 2.5 points.
The trade side pulled the other way. Imports surged, largely capital goods, and net exports subtracted 3.3 percentage points from growth. Residential investment fell 3.3%.
On jobs, net new payrolls averaged 51,000 a month in the third quarter and 68,000 so far in 2026; private-sector growth slowed to 54,000 a month from 79,000. The unemployment rate averaged 4.1%, down from 4.3% in the first half, and average hourly earnings were up 3.0% over the year to September. Federal payrolls stood at about 2.68 million, down from 3.01 million in January 2025.
What it means
The statement is the government's own reading and is written to sound upbeat, but its numbers point one way for the dollar and Treasury supply: growth driven by investment and imports, with a widening trade deficit, ahead of a refunding in which the Treasury sets how much it borrows and in what form.