The risk of waiting has changed sides

Victoria Shinder28 September 2026, 07:422 min read

For most of the past two years central bankers defended patience with a familiar argument: acting too early risks choking a weak recovery, while the cost of waiting is small. Four documents published between 18 and 28 September show that argument being turned around.

Japan. Minutes of the Bank of Japan's July meeting, released on 28 September, record one member saying that it could no longer be said that the risk of waiting was marginal, and that the focus had moved from lifting underlying inflation to 2 percent to avoiding an upward deviation. Another member said hikes could come faster than the roughly six-monthly pace markets expect.

Canada. Governor Tiff Macklem said on 21 September that the Bank does not want to restrain growth if inflation pressures are contained, but nor does it want to be too slow if they become persistent, and announced a new model built to tell the two apart.

Australia. Governor Michele Bullock told parliament on 18 September that upside risks to inflation appear to be materialising after 75 basis points of increases this year, and that embedded cost increases could require a stronger response.

United Kingdom. The Bank of England's September survey of market participants shows the median expert expecting Bank Rate to stay at 3.75 percent for a year. Asked why market pricing sits higher, respondents gave the largest weight to an upside skew in risks.

What connects them

The trigger is the same: an energy shock from the Middle East arriving while inflation in several economies was already above target. The logic is also shared. If a temporary price rise feeds into wages and expectations, the later correction has to be larger. One Bank of Japan board member spelled this out as a double shock: the damage from inflation, followed by rapid and substantial rate increases.

What it does not say

None of these documents announces a decision, and each keeps both options formally open. Canada still points to trade uncertainty that could weaken growth; the British survey's median still sees no hike. What has changed is the burden of proof. Patience used to be the default that needed no defence; in these texts, it is the choice that has to be justified.