Two holds and a strong US quarter: 48 hours of central bank news

Serguey Asael Shinder30 October 2026, 10:232 min read

Three releases in less than 48 hours give a cross-section of how the major economies are handling the same energy shock.

The European Central Bank held its deposit rate at 2.50% on 29 October (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html). Its statement describes energy prices that keep rising, with upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth, underlying inflation that has so far stayed broadly stable, wages that show no material response, and financing conditions that have tightened since the last meeting.

The same morning in Washington, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real GDP growth of 3.4% at an annual rate for the third quarter, with final sales to private domestic purchasers up 4.9% and PCE price growth slowing to 2.1% from 5.0% (https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-advance-estimate-3rd-quarter-2026). That followed the Federal Reserve's decision a day earlier to hold rates, with two members voting for a hike.

On 30 October the Bank of Japan held its policy rate at around 1.25% by 8 votes to 1, with Hajime Takata proposing 1.5% because, in his view, underlying inflation has reached the target, and it more than doubled the pace of its ETF sales from January 2027 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k261030a.pdf).

What it means

All three central banks held, but for different reasons. In the euro area the shock is still described as building and tighter financing is doing some of the work. In the US, demand is strong while the latest quarterly price reading has cooled, which is why a minority wants to hike and the majority waits. In Japan the debate is about whether inflation has settled at target, which turns the question from crisis response to normalisation. The common thread is that each statement leaves the next move open and ties it to data that has not been published yet. None of the releases says anything about exchange rates, and none should be read as one.