Bank of Japan consumption index falls 0.8% in August; Q3 tracking 1.0% lower

Victoria Shinder07 October 2026, 07:331 min read

The Bank of Japan's real Consumption Activity Index (CAI), released on 7 October with data for August, shows consumption weakening into the third quarter.

The monthly figures, seasonally adjusted, month on month:

| | June | July | August | |---|---|---|---| | CAI, travel balance adjusted | −1.3% | −0.0% | −0.8% | | CAI | −1.4% | +0.5% | −0.9% |

The quarters, seasonally adjusted, quarter on quarter. The Q3 figure is the July-August average:

| | Q1 2026 | Q2 | Q3 (Jul–Aug) | |---|---|---|---| | CAI, travel balance adjusted | +0.7% | +1.2% | −1.0% | | CAI | +0.6% | +0.7% | −0.6% |

What the index measures. The CAI is compiled by the Bank's Research and Statistics Department from sales and supply-side statistics on goods and services, as a timely measure of short-term consumption; private consumption makes up roughly half of GDP. The travel-balance-adjusted version excludes spending by inbound tourists and includes outbound tourism consumption. Components whose source data for the latest month are not yet available are extrapolated from the previous month. Weights in the index: services 47.1, non-durable goods 44.3 and durable goods 8.6.

The CAI is published, in principle, on the fifth business day of each month. The Bank describes these as research data, subject to revision.