Swedish firms rate conditions above average for the first time since 2022
Serguey Asael Shinder2 min readThe Riksbank published its Business Survey on 16 September 2026, conducted in August. Its headline finding: large Swedish companies now assess the economic situation as above its historical average for the first time since September 2022.
Before the summer there were fears that the war in the Middle East would delay the recovery. According to the survey those fears did not materialise — demand has strengthened, and the cost increases resulting from the war are described as manageable, so companies take a more optimistic view of what comes next.
Retail and hospitality are the most optimistic, on the back of strong summer sales. The picture they give of households is split: frugal in day-to-day life, willing to spend on holidays and special occasions. Many companies nonetheless judge that underlying household demand has strengthened, and are more optimistic about consumption than they were in May. Firms selling to other businesses describe their trend as driven largely by structural change.
What it means
A survey is a measurement of opinion, and that is exactly its use here. A central bank runs one because published statistics arrive with a lag and firms know their own order books first. It is a reading of expectations, not of output.
"First time since September 2022" is the sentence that dates the cycle. That is a four-year window closing — and it is the sort of line a rate-setting committee quotes back at itself when arguing about whether policy is still restrictive.
Watch the gap between the household description and the corporate one. Companies report strengthening underlying demand while describing consumers as careful day to day. Those two can only both be true for so long, and which one gives way is the interesting question for the next survey.
⚠ This is a survey of assessments, published by the central bank. It is not a decision, and we draw no forecast from it.