BoE risk survey: AI now cited by 63% of firms, up 32 points in six months
Serguey Asael Shinder2 min readRisks linked to artificial intelligence have moved into the mainstream of what UK financial firms worry about, according to the Bank of England's Systemic Risk Survey for the second half of 2026, published on 30 September. The survey was conducted from 27 July to 24 August; 57 firms took part, a 66% response rate.
The risk list. Asked to name the five risks that would hit the UK financial system hardest if they materialised, respondents cited:
| Risk | Share citing | Change since H1 | |---|---|---| | Geopolitical risk | 91% | −4 pts | | Cyberattack | 75% | −7 pts | | Artificial intelligence | 63% | +32 pts | | UK economic downturn | 51% | +4 pts | | Financial market disruption | 32% | −16 pts |
The jump in AI is, in the Bank's words, one of the largest movements in recent rounds, taking it from a lower-ranked concern to third place. It also reached its highest level in the survey as a source of risk, as the most challenging risk to manage and as the most likely to materialise. Respondents pointed to the speed of technological change and to weak controls and governance. Few, however, rank it first: only 4% named AI as their number-one risk, against 47% for geopolitics and 26% for cyberattack. Further down the list, mentions of UK political risk fell to 7% and of inflation risk rose to 9%.
Probability of a shock. Respondents judged a high-impact event in the UK financial system more likely than six months ago over both horizons. Over the next 12 months, 28% put the probability at high, up 5 points, 47% at medium, and 25% at low or very low. Over one to three years, 7% put it at very high, up 5 points, and 40% at high.
Confidence holds. Despite that, 95% said they were very confident (39%) or fairly confident (56%) in the stability of the UK financial system over the next three years, broadly unchanged; 5% were not very confident, and nobody chose the extremes.
The survey goes to executives responsible for risk or treasury at banks, building societies, large foreign banks, asset managers, hedge funds, insurers, pension funds, large non-financial companies and central counterparties. The Bank stresses that the results are respondents' views, not its own.
What it means
The headline is the gap between how often AI is mentioned and how rarely it is ranked first: firms see it everywhere but not yet as the thing most likely to break the system. For the Bank, whose board has already approved extra money for work on frontier AI risks, the survey confirms that the industry now shares the concern — and that geopolitics and cyber remain the risks it would bet on.