Euro area grows 0.4% in the third quarter; France shrinks and Italy stalls

Serguey Asael Shinder31 October 2026, 10:431 min read

Euro area GDP grew 0.4% in the third quarter of 2026 compared with the second, Eurostat said in its preliminary flash estimate on 30 October. Growth across the whole EU was 0.5%. In the second quarter, the euro area had grown 0.6% and the EU 0.7%. Compared with a year earlier, euro area output was 1.3% higher and EU output 1.5% higher.

The country detail shows the gap between the bloc's largest economies. Spain grew 0.6% for the quarter, its pace barely changed through the year, and the Netherlands also grew 0.6%. Germany expanded 0.2% and Italy 0.0%. France contracted 0.1%, its annual rate turning negative at minus 0.1%, the only member state with a year-on-year decline among those reporting. Lithuania fell 1.0% on the quarter. Ireland recorded the largest increase, 5.5%, a figure Eurostat flags as experimental and likely to be revised, given that the series swung from minus 7.8% in the first quarter to plus 10.2% in the second.

Eurostat stresses that the flash is based on incomplete data and that earlier quarters were not revised. The next estimate for the third quarter, with more countries and employment figures, is due on 13 November.

What it means

Stripped of Ireland's swings, the euro area is growing modestly, carried by Spain and the Netherlands while France and Italy add nothing. That is the backdrop against which the ECB held its deposit rate at 2.5% on 29 October while discussing a possible December hike because of energy-driven inflation. The growth figure gives hawks no reason to fear a recession and doves an argument that the economy outside the periphery is too weak to absorb higher rates.