Kazakhstan's 23 October cut to 15.75%: what Governor Suleimenov's statement says
Victoria Shinder1 min readThe Bank for International Settlements republished on 2 November the statement Governor Timur Suleimenov gave in Astana on 23 October, when the National Bank of Kazakhstan's Monetary Policy Committee cut the base rate by 50 basis points to 15.75%. The decision itself is more than a week old; the statement is the bank's full account of why it was taken.
Suleimenov said disinflation is strengthening: annual inflation slowed through the year to 9.3% in September from 9.8% in August. Food inflation fell from 9.5% to 8.5%, mainly on cheaper vegetables and fruit, non-food inflation eased to 11%, and services inflation held at 8.9%, with market-based services rising faster than regulated ones. Monthly inflation was 0.6% in September, unchanged from August. He credited the slowdown to the policy stance, a stronger tenge that contains the price of imported goods, steadier consumer demand and anti-inflation measures agreed with the government.
The governor stressed that inflation is still above target and that the balance of risks remains tilted towards higher inflation, so the bank will keep monetary conditions moderately tight. Its objective is unchanged: inflation down to 6.5 to 8.5% in 2027 and stable close to the 5% target during 2028, with further decisions depending on actual and expected inflation, expectations and pro-inflationary risks.
What it means
A cut of 50 basis points with a real rate this high is still tight policy, and the statement says so. The figure to watch is services inflation: it did not fall in September, and it is the component least helped by a strong currency.