US Treasury expects to borrow $618 billion this quarter and $800 billion in January to March
Serguey Asael Shinder1 min readThe US Treasury announced on 2 November its estimates of privately-held net marketable borrowing for the next two quarters. For October to December 2026 it expects to borrow $618 billion, assuming a cash balance of $850 billion at the end of December. For January to March 2027 it expects $800 billion, assuming an end-of-March cash balance of $1.000 trillion.
The current-quarter figure is $10 billion lower than the estimate announced in August. The Treasury attributes that mainly to a higher-than-assumed cash balance at the start of the quarter, partly offset by lower projected net cash flows. Excluding the effect of that starting balance, it says, the estimate is $24 billion higher than in August.
For July to September 2026 the Treasury borrowed $742 billion and ended the quarter with $984 billion in cash, against an August estimate of $739 billion and an assumed $950 billion balance. The $4 billion difference came mainly from the higher ending cash balance, offset by higher net cash flows; excluding that balance, actual borrowing was $30 billion lower than estimated. Further financing details for the Quarterly Refunding are due at 8:30 a.m. on Wednesday, 4 November.
What it means
The headline cut is about cash, not the deficit: stripped of the bigger opening balance, the Treasury needs more this quarter than it thought in August. The amounts and mix of coupon auctions that bond markets watch come only with Wednesday's refunding statement.