Contributing writer
Software engineer, BSc First Class Honours in Computing and Information Systems. Reads central bank statements, minutes and statistical releases, and writes down what each one changes and what it leaves unchanged.
New York Fed economists trace the shift to an index provider moving its strike time from 3 p.m. to 4 p.m. in 2021. On month-end days the 10 minutes around 4 p.m. carried 20.4% of volume in 2025.
Roberto Perli says a lower Treasury cash forecast raised expected reserves, and $400bn of net bill issuance barely moved repo rates. The desk will watch October issuance.
Comparing FX forwards in the same pair, half hour and maturity, the authors find a 4bp-a-year spread across dealers and a 2.5bp premium for buying dollars forward, 11.8bp under one month.
The board kept the BI-Rate, deposit and lending rates unchanged and raised premium discounts on swap and domestic NDF hedging for foreign funding, up to 30% on 12-month DNDF.
The September issue also reports growth of 7.8% in the April-June quarter, inflation at 4.8% in August and reserves at a record, as higher energy prices return.
The unanimous decision keeps a wide real rate as the Committee expects inflation to rise into its 8% plus or minus 2 band. Private credit grew 35.5% in August and the next meeting ends on 18 November.
Japan's flow of funds shows banks, pensions and households taking up bonds the BoJ no longer buys. India's RBI argues credit can outrun deposits. Both are about who funds whom.
Greenfield projects, acquisitions, reinvestment and capital spending by US subsidiaries in China have all fallen, and official bilateral figures understate the exposure because of Hong Kong routing.
A staff working paper argues a stabilisation index should weight discretionary-sector prices most, because rates move demand there while necessities drive much of inflation variation.
Transaction-level data show recent growth comes from existing non-Japanese depositors, and that cash-management services make deposits stickier and cheaper to acquire.